Why it’s fools gold to count wins on the schedule before games are played

The NFL is the most unpredictable league in all of sports. Upsets are as common as a sunrise each week. I always laugh when I see people here saying “Looking at the schedule, I see 9-10 more wins”…or something similar. It’s fool’s gold.

The truth is, every opponent on our schedule is a potential win or loss. Don’t believe that? Look at some of the upsets that have happened in just the first 35% of the season:

  • Week 1- Bears 19-niners 10. I’m sure we all saw that coming, right?
  • Week 2- Dolphins 42-ravens 38.
  • Week 2- Jags 24- colts 0
  • Week 3- Dolphins 21-bills 19.
  • Week 3- Broncos 11-niners 10
  • Week 3- Colts 20-chiefs 17.
  • Week 5- giants 27-packers 22.
  • Week 6- falcons 28-niners 14.
  • Week 6- jets 27-packers 10.
  • Week 6- Steelers 20-Bucs 18.
  • Week 6- Seahawks 19-cards 9.
  • Week 6- giants 24-ravens 20.

The NFL is not college football where picking winners weeks or months in advance can happen. In the pros, the old “on any given Sunday” applies every single week. Truth is we’ve played 35% of the schedule, not 95%. All NFL teams evolve. Some get better from one week to the next. The talent margins between the best and worst teams in the NFL are very thin.

The Cowboys are still developing as a team. We can’t look at the schedule and think a game like the lions Sunday is a given win. I expect the Cowboys to win Sunday against the lions, but also expect it to be a war.

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