Below is a chart of all the RBs selected in the first round since 2012. Looking at this list can quickly explain why drafting a RB, especially early in round 1 is probably not the best use of draft capital.
Rd Year Pick
|
1
|
2021
|
24
|
24
|
Najee Harris
|
Steelers
|
Alabama
|
| 1 |
2021
|
25
|
25
|
Travis Etienne
|
Jaguars
|
Clemson
|
| 1 |
2020
|
32
|
32
|
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
|
Chiefs
|
Louisiana State
|
| 1 |
2019
|
24
|
24
|
Josh Jacobs
|
Raiders
|
Alabama
|
| 1 |
2018
|
2
|
2
|
Saquon Barkley
|
Giants
|
Penn State
|
| 1 |
2018
|
27
|
27
|
Rashaad Penny
|
Seahawks
|
San Diego State
|
| 1 |
2018
|
31
|
31
|
Sony Michel
|
Patriots
|
Georgia
|
| 1 |
2017
|
4
|
4
|
Leonard Fournette
|
Jaguars
|
Louisiana State
|
| 1 |
2017
|
8
|
8
|
Christian McCaffrey
|
Panthers
|
Stanford
|
| 1 |
2016
|
4
|
4
|
Ezekiel Elliott
|
Cowboys
|
Ohio State
|
| 1 |
2015
|
10
|
10
|
Todd Gurley
|
Rams
|
Georgia
|
| 1 |
2015
|
15
|
15
|
Melvin Gordon
|
Chargers
|
Wisconsin
|
| 1 |
2012
|
3
|
3
|
Trent Richardson
|
Browns
|
Alabama
|
| 1 |
2012
|
31
|
31
|
Doug Martin
|
Buccaneers
|
Boise State
|
| 1 |
2012
|
32
|
32
|
David Wilson
|
Giants
|
Virginia Tech
|
Of the 15 first round RBs selected in round one in the last 11 drafts, only Zeke Elliott (2016, 2018) and Josh Jacobs (2022) have led the NFL in rushing in a season. The years 2013-14, not a single team selected a RB in round one.
And when looking at leading rusher stats the last 5 seasons, other than in 2018, first round RBs are not exactly killing it. In facts round 2 RBs are the most productive.
TOP 3 LEADING RUSHERS IN NFL BY YEAR (and round drafted)
- 2022- Josh Jacobs (rd 1), Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2)
- 2021- Jonathan Taylor (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Joe Mixon (rd 2)
- 2020- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Dalvin Cook (rd 2), Jonathan Taylor rd 2)
- 2019- Derrick Henry (rd 2), Nick Chubb (rd 2), Christian McCaffrey (rd 1)
- 2018- Ezekiel Elliott (rd 1), Saquon Barkley (rd 1), Todd Gurley (rd 1)
Looks like drafting a RB in round 2 is a better option than round 1 based on recent history.
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