Interesting trend in the NFL with scoring

It’s only 3 games into a long season, but there’s an interesting trend in the NFL: Scoring is WAY down. This last week, the 20.3 points per game by teams was the lowest for a Week 3 since 2009 and the fourth lowest for any week in the past 5 seasons.

Even the league’s top QBs are struggling. Pat Mahomes, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers- winners of four of the last five MVP awards have all struggled in the first 3 games. Last week, their teams had a paltry 43 points combined. That's the fewest points scored in the 57 weeks those top QBs have all started. The previous low was 55 in Week 15 of the 2018 season.

Brady’s Bucs have yet to score 20 points in a game this year. Rodgers packers are averaging 16.5 points a game. Several games this week were just awful from an offensive standpoint- especially the 11-10 doze bowl between the niners and broncos Sun night. Just brutal.

We knew going into this season the Cowboys might struggle on offense at the start with so many new faces. So why is this a pattern league wide?

Here are some theories:

  • Fewer teams playing starters in ps games– making the start of the season inherently sloppy. Most teams no longer risk playing their QBs and other key skill people.
  • Defenses are better at the start of each season– coming out of training camp, defenses are almost always ahead of the offense.
  • Defenses getting away with more holding and grabbing in the passing game– we saw this Sun against NYG with several holds and PI not being called. Reminded me of the 70s defenses.
  • Parity– after 3 games, there are only two teams that are undefeated- Mia and Filly. Are there just fewer good teams this year?

The good news for the Cowboys in all this is two fold- 1. The Cowboys have a bonafide good defense and 2. The NFL appears to be much more wide open this year. It may be a year where a champion could spring from a team who gets hot late in the season- maybe a 10-7 type team?

Who knows? It’s still early. But interesting how offenses are struggling league wide.

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