Cowboys win 2 games (@Titans and @Commanders)
Eagles lose 2 games (vs. Saints and vs. Giants)
49ers lose 1 game (@Raiders or vs. Cardinals)
Vikings lose 1 game (@Packers or @Bears)
All of the above would have to happen to get #1 seed.
But although still unlikely we can still get a #2 #3 or #4 seed (obviously as division winner) if we can win out and the Eagles lose out depending on what also happens with the 49ers and Vikings yet again. Hurts injury opens that door slightly but he may be back.
We have the biggest chance of being #5 seed (we cannot be #6 or #7 no matter what)
If we’re the #5 seed we have the best chance of playing the Bucs, but the Panthers and Saints are both only 1 game behind Tampa and can still win that division. No other teams are possible to play if we get #5 just Bucs, Panthers or Saints.