Dak Interceptions – Regression to the Mean (Warning: Math Geek)

In Dak’s first 6 seasons, he started 85 games, and threw 50 interceptions – an average interception rate of 0.588 interceptions per game. Over a 17 game season, the expected interceptions Dak should throw is 10 interceptions per 17 game season. But last year, in only 12 games, Dak threw 1.25 interceptions per game for a total of 15 interceptions. 2022 was obviously an outlier, with Dak throwing interceptions at more than twice his normal rate.

Statistically, barring outside factors, there is a principal called “Regression to the Mean. It means that an unusually high variation will likely be counter-balances by an unusually low variation in the variable (in this case interceptions) to bring the average back down to its historical value.

If Dak interceptions regress to the mean, that means that over the next two seasons, he’ll only throw about 12 interceptions, which is about 6 per season, assuming he plays all 17 games in 2023 & 2024.

Here is the math:

• 12 games (2022) + 34 games (2023 & 2024) = 46 games.
• Average of .588 interceptions per game x 46 games = 27 interceptions over 46 games.
• 27 interceptions – 15 interceptions already thrown = 12 interceptions spread out over the next 34 games

Unless Dak Prescott suddenly got worse, or there was some outside factor that affected his play in 2022, Dak’s average interception rate should revert back to what it has been over his first 85 games, which means he’ll throw fewer interceptions to offset what happened in 2022.

The alternative few, still assuming that Dak’s historical career average of interceptions over his first 85 games in a true picture of what we can expect, is that there was an anomaly in 2022. Some will say, maybe justifiably, that Dak’s receiver corps was suspect in 2022, which is an outside factor that would affect him. If that is the case, then we should expect Dak to revert back to his normal rate, which means he’ll throw about 10 interceptions in a 17 game season.

Bottom line: Unless Dak has suddenly got worse, we should expect him to throw around 6-10 interceptions in 2023, and the same in 2024. Even if you include the anomalous 2022 season, Dak’s current career interception rate is 65 interceptions over 97 games played = 0.67 interceptions per game. The high end of that is 11 expected interceptions in 2023 over an entire 17 game schedule.

Now, we’ll all see what actually occurs during the season, but based on Dak’s historical performance, I’m not too concerned about interceptions in 2023. I do believe that Michael Gallup was hobbled last year, and I wasn’t ever a huge fan of Dalton Schultz, who was competent, but not special. The addition of Cooks, the health improvement of Gallup, and the development of Tolbert bodes well for Dak’s performance in 2023 – at least during the season.