I Want To Play A Game
Let’s see if we can put our biases aside for one thread and use our collective wisdom to see if there could be underlying reasons for Dak’s performance drop.
Below are some random advanced metrics which I dropped into a spreadsheet, applied a few formulas, and produced the charts.
A brief description of each of the 4 sections:
- QBR Tier – straight from the ESPN site using their definitions for Elite (blue) and Good (orange). The first 2 rows under each year is the number of QB’s in each category for that year. The 3rd row is the QBR for Dak in the appropriate tier color. The 4th row is his overall QBR ranking for that year.
- Misc. passing stats – self explanatory…I included Dak’s QBR for comparison. There may be other useful metrics but these were the ones I chose.
- Pass distribution by year – self explanatory (QBR included)
- Pass distribution by position – same data as section 3 but by position v year (QBR included).
A few additional caveats:
- I used QBR as the primary metric to compare statistical results. If you don’t like QBR, screw you…do your own spreadsheet.
- I did not include stats for 2020 as the sample size was too small due to injury. FYI, prior to the 2020 injury, Dak was above 70 in QBR.
- For ease of comparison, I took the 12 games played in 2022 and extrapolated to 16 games. IMO, 12 games is a large enough sample size to extrapolate.
- I am not including my thoughts (for now) as I don’t want to bias others opinions.
- I lied, I am going to include 1 thought to establish a baseline. Prior to the injury, Dak was a top 4 NFL QB relative to QBR in 3 of 4 years. Post injury, he has not regained his form. Again, if you don’t like QBR, kick rocks.
The mission, should you choose to accept it:
- Putting personal biases aside, is it possible to identify possible underlying reasons for Dak’s drop in performance using basic advanced passing stats. If folks see something that warrants a deeper dive on the rushing side, I may pull that data at a later date.
- For those who are Cowboys historians, feel free to consider things that happened during the years (coaching, scheme, sucky players, etc. etc.) that might partially explain performance.
Final Thought:
For anyone not paying attention, yes, I did just create a post that included a reference to SAW and MISSION IMPOSSIBLE.
DAMN IT FEELS GOOD TO BE A GANGSTA
| QBR Tier | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | |||||
| Elite 60+ | 8 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 13 | |||||
| Good 55-60 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | |||||
| QBR Dak | 57.9 | 60.5 | NA | 71.9 | 55.2 | 69.9 | 77.6 | |||||
| NFL Rank | #12 | #11 | NA | #4 | #17 | #4 | #3 | |||||
| Year | Team Record | QBR Dak | % Drives TD Pass | % Drives Any Score | % Drives Int | TD Balance R v P % | % Passes Dropped | % Passes Bad | % Passes On Tgt | Pocket Time | % Pocket Pressure | % Sacks |
| 2016 | 13-3 | 77.6 | 5.0% | 43.9% | 0.9% | 49% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 2017 | 9-7 | 69.9 | 4.5% | 36.3% | 2.7% | 45% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 2018 | 10-6 | 55.2 | 4.2% | 37.9% | 1.5% | 37% | 4.3% | 17.3% | NA | 2.4 | 29.1% | 9.6% |
| 2019 | 8-8 | 71.9 | 5.0% | 44.6% | 1.8% | 38% | 6.2% | 14.8% | 77.6% | 2.6 | 18.8% | 3.7% |
| 2020 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 2021 | 12-5 | 60.5 | 6.2% | 43.8% | 1.7% | 29% | 6.9% | 14.9% | 77.8% | 2.4 | 19.2% | 4.8% |
| 2022 | 12-5 | 57.9 | 5.8% | 41.5% | 3.8% | 44% | 6.4% | 17.3% | 76.3% | 2.5 | 20.0% | 4.8% |
| PASS DIST BY YEAR | ||||||||||||
| Year | QBR Dak | Pos | % Targets | % Rec | Catch % | % TD’s | ||||||
| 2022 | 57.9 | WR | 70% | 67% | 60% | 66% | ||||||
| TE | 18% | 20% | 69% | 26% | ||||||||
| RB | 12% | 14% | 73% | 9% | ||||||||
| 2021 | 60.5 | WR | 66% | 62% | 66% | 64% | ||||||
| TE | 14% | 15% | 74% | 28% | ||||||||
| RB | 20% | 22% | 78% | 8% | ||||||||
| 2019 | 71.9 | WR | 62% | 58% | 63% | 67% | ||||||
| TE | 22% | 24% | 75% | 23% | ||||||||
| RB | 16% | 18% | 76% | 10% | ||||||||
| 2018 | 55.2 | WR | 61% | 56% | 64% | 68% | ||||||
| TE | 18% | 19% | 74% | 18% | ||||||||
| RB | 21% | 24% | 80% | 14% | ||||||||
| 2017 | 69.9 | WR | 65% | 60% | 59% | 59% | ||||||
| TE | 20% | 23% | 70% | 27% | ||||||||
| RB | 15% | 17% | 74% | 14% | ||||||||
| 2016 | 77.6 | WR | 61% | 58% | 65% | 80% | ||||||
| TE | 23% | 25% | 72% | 16% | ||||||||
| RB | 16% | 17% | 73% | 4% | ||||||||
| PASS DIST BY POSITION | ||||||||||||
| Year | QBR Dak | Pos | % Tgts | % Rec | % Catch | % TD’s | ||||||
| 2022 | 57.9 | WR | 70% | 67% | 60% | 66% | ||||||
| 2021 | 60.5 | WR | 66% | 62% | 66% | 64% | ||||||
| 2019 | 71.9 | WR | 62% | 58% | 63% | 67% | ||||||
| 2018 | 55.2 | WR | 61% | 56% | 64% | 68% | ||||||
| 2017 | 69.9 | WR | 65% | 60% | 59% | 59% | ||||||
| 2016 | 77.6 | WR | 61% | 58% | 65% | 80% | ||||||
| Year | QBR Dak | Pos | % Tgts | % Rec | Ctch % | % TD’s | ||||||
| 2022 | 57.9 | TE | 18% | 20% | 69% | 26% | ||||||
| 2021 | 60.5 | TE | 14% | 15% | 74% | 28% | ||||||
| 2019 | 71.9 | TE | 22% | 24% | 75% | 23% | ||||||
| 2018 | 55.2 | TE | 18% | 19% | 74% | 18% | ||||||
| 2017 | 69.9 | TE | 20% | 23% | 70% | 27% | ||||||
| 2016 | 77.6 | TE | 23% | 25% | 72% | 16% | ||||||
| Year | QBR Dak | Pos | % Tgts | % Rec | Ctch % | % TD’s | ||||||
| 2022 | 57.9 | RB | 12% | 14% | 73% | 9% | ||||||
| 2021 | 60.5 | RB | 20% | 22% | 78% | 8% | ||||||
| 2019 | 71.9 | RB | 16% | 18% | 76% | 10% | ||||||
| 2018 | 55.2 | RB | 21% | 24% | 80% | 14% | ||||||
| 2017 | 69.9 | RB | 15% | 17% | 74% | 14% | ||||||
| 2016 | 77.6 | RB | 16% | 17% | 73% | 4% |
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